Antarctica, Earth’s coldest continent, is experiencing an unprecedented heat wave that has scientists worried about the future health of the region and the potential global consequences. Since mid-July, temperatures in parts of East Antarctica have soared up to 50 degrees Fahrenheit above normal, a trend that could continue through mid-August.
Typically, winter temperatures in East Antarctica range between minus 58 and minus 76 degrees Fahrenheit. However, recent readings show temperatures closer to minus 13 to minus 22 degrees Fahrenheit. Although these temperatures remain below freezing, the anomaly is alarming. Bismarck, North Dakota, has recorded minus 20 degrees Fahrenheit almost annually since 1875, but such warmth in Antarctica is unheard of.
This heat wave is a cause for concern because Antarctica holds the majority of the planet’s ice. Should all of this ice melt, global sea levels would rise by over 150 feet, a catastrophic scenario for coastal communities worldwide. Even smaller ice features, like the Thwaites Glacier, dubbed the “Doomsday Glacier,” could raise sea levels by 10 feet if they melted completely.
The current heat wave is part of a disturbing trend. In March 2022, another heat wave in Antarctica saw temperatures rise up to 70 degrees Fahrenheit above normal. Climate change exacerbated that event, adding 3.6 degrees of warming, and it could worsen future heat waves by 9 to 10.8 degrees Fahrenheit by 2100, according to a 2023 study in Geophysical Research Letters.
The conditions causing the ongoing heat wave stem from a breakdown of the southern polar vortex, an atmospheric phenomenon that traps cold air over Antarctica. When this vortex is disrupted, it releases cold air northward and allows warm air to move southward. This disruption, which began in late July, is expected to peak in early August, keeping Antarctic temperatures elevated.
Additionally, multiple surges of warm air from the southwestern Indian Ocean have pushed into East Antarctica, maintaining near-continuous warming over the past few weeks. Such atmospheric conditions are usually rare, occurring once every two decades on average, according to Thomas Bracegirdle, deputy science leader for the British Antarctic Survey’s Atmosphere, Ice, and Climate team.
East Antarctica, home to the South Pole and typically the coldest place on Earth, is seeing significant warming. This trend is concerning, as it could leave the continent less fortified for its summer season, making it more vulnerable to melting during subsequent heat waves. Increased Antarctic melting could also alter global oceanic circulations, which play a crucial role in regulating the planet’s climate.
In recent years, Antarctica has lost 280% more ice mass in the 2000s and 2010s compared to the 1980s and 1990s, according to a 2019 study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. This rapid ice loss underscores the urgency of addressing climate change.
While the current heat wave hasn’t reached the extreme temperature departures of the 2022 event, it has been more expansive and long-lasting. This could signal more frequent high-temperature extremes in Antarctica as the climate continues to change.
As scientists continue to study this heat wave, the immediate response is one of astonishment and concern. The implications of these unprecedented events underscore the critical need for global efforts to mitigate climate change and protect vulnerable regions like Antarctica.