Brazil’s Pantanal, the world’s largest tropical wetland, is facing an unprecedented ecological disaster. A recent study has revealed that the devastating wildfires that swept through the region in June were made four times more likely and 40% more intense due to human-induced climate disruption. These fires have ravaged 440,000 hectares (1.1 million acres) of land, leaving behind charred remains of countless animals, plants, insects, and fungi, and are believed to have claimed millions of lives within this diverse ecosystem.
The destruction caused by these fires has shattered previous records, with the extent of the damage exceeding the June average by over 70%. Extreme fire weather—marked by the driest, hottest, and windiest June since records began—created a tinderbox environment ripe for wildfires. According to the international team of scientists at World Weather Attribution, these conditions are expected to occur once every 35 years under the current global heating levels of 1.2C above pre-industrial levels. The study emphasizes that if humans had not destabilized the climate by burning fossil fuels and engaging in deforestation, such extreme fire weather would have been far less likely.
The analysis, based on observations and computer models, found that the unusual combination of wind, heat, and aridity made fire conditions in the Pantanal 40% more intense and four to five times more probable. While the El Niño climate pattern, which weakened before June, did not significantly influence the wildfires, the ongoing trends are alarming. The scientists warn that if global heating reaches 2C, severe fire weather could become twice as likely and 17% more intense.
The Pantanal is not just an ecological treasure; it is also home to Indigenous communities and provides essential ecosystem services to the surrounding areas, inhabited by thousands of ranchers, farmers, and fishers. Once a vast carbon store, the wetland is now contributing more emissions than before due to these fires.
The origins of the fires are often unclear, with many ignited in areas invaded or degraded by settlers, while others result from accidents or controlled burns that spiral out of control. Dr. Clair Barnes from the Grantham Institute, Imperial College London, explains that climate change has exacerbated the situation, turning the wetland into a tinderbox where small fires can rapidly evolve into devastating infernos.
The researchers urge immediate action to mitigate the local threat by reducing deforestation and strengthening bans on controlled burns. However, with 9% of the Pantanal already burned this year and the peak wildfire season in August and September, the outlook remains dire.
As global temperatures continue to rise, the risk of catastrophic wildfires in the Pantanal and other vital ecosystems will only increase. The study’s authors stress the urgent need to transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy to prevent further irreversible damage to the planet’s most precious environments.