In 2024, the world witnessed unprecedented wildfires sweeping through Brazil’s Pantanal wetlands, a region celebrated as the largest tropical wetland on Earth and one of the most biodiverse ecosystems globally. According to a recent rapid attribution study by the World Weather Attribution (WWA) service, these devastating fires were significantly intensified by human-caused climate change. The study finds that the extreme weather conditions that fueled these fires were made four to five times more likely due to global warming, with the fires themselves being 40% more intense.
The Pantanal’s Fiery June
The Pantanal spans Brazil, Bolivia, and Paraguay, and is home to over 4,700 species of plants and animals. Every year, the wetland experiences hot and dry weather conditions that make it susceptible to wildfires, particularly between July and September. However, the scale and intensity of the fires in 2024 have been extraordinary, driven by exceptionally hot, dry, and windy conditions in June.
The WWA study highlights that June 2024 was the hottest, driest, and windiest month in the Pantanal’s 45-year record. The researchers attribute these extreme conditions to human-induced climate change, which has already warmed the planet by 1.2°C above pre-industrial levels. In a world without climate change, such conditions would be a rarity, occurring only once every 161 years. However, in today’s climate, these conditions are now expected to occur once every 35 years.
Record-Breaking Fires and Drought
The data from Brazil’s National Institute for Space Research reveal a staggering 1,500% increase in the number of fires in the Pantanal during the first half of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023. By June 2024, over 1.3 million hectares of the wetland—an area eight times the size of London—had been consumed by fire. This marks a significant escalation in fire activity, with June alone recording around 2,500 fires, the highest number since 1998.
The fires in 2024 have been compounded by the worst drought in the region in 70 years. Brazilian authorities have linked this severe drought to both climate change and one of the strongest El Niño events in history. The prolonged dry periods, coupled with soaring temperatures and land-use changes, have created the perfect storm for wildfires in the Pantanal.
A New Fire Regime?
While wildfires are a natural part of the Pantanal’s ecosystem, the increasing frequency and severity of these fire seasons raise alarm bells. Dr. Maria Lucia Barbosa, a postdoctoral researcher at the Federal University of São Carlos in Brazil, notes that the recurrence of extreme fire events—such as those in 2020 and 2024—suggests that the Pantanal may be entering a new fire regime. This emerging regime is characterized by more intense and frequent wildfires, driven largely by climate change.
The WWA study uses a metric called the “daily severity rating” (DSR) to assess fire conditions. The DSR combines factors such as maximum temperature, humidity, wind speed, and precipitation to estimate how difficult it would be to control a fire once it starts. The analysis shows that June 2024 saw the highest DSR on record for the Pantanal, indicating that the region was experiencing fire weather risks well above the 1990-2020 average.
The Path Ahead
As global temperatures continue to rise, the likelihood of such extreme fire conditions is expected to increase. The study warns that if the planet warms by 2°C, the likelihood of conditions like those seen in June 2024 could double, making them a one-in-18-year event. This grim projection underscores the urgent need for comprehensive climate action.
The Pantanal, with its rich biodiversity and unique ecosystem, faces an uncertain future if the current trend of rising temperatures and increased fire activity continues. The 2024 wildfires are a stark reminder of the tangible and devastating impacts of climate change. Protecting the Pantanal and other vulnerable regions around the world requires immediate and sustained efforts to mitigate climate change, including reducing greenhouse gas emissions and implementing effective land management strategies.
In conclusion, the 2024 Pantanal wildfires serve as a powerful example of how climate change is not just a future threat, but a present reality. As the planet warms, the challenges posed by extreme weather events like these will only grow more severe, demanding urgent and coordinated action from the global community.