Saturday, December 14, 2024

Bangladesh’s LNG Gamble: A $50 Billion Risk to People, Planet, and Prosperity

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-Mamun Kabir

As Bangladesh grapples with the existential threat of climate change, its government faces a high-stakes decision regarding its future energy strategy. The current trajectory, which is heavily focused on liquefied natural gas (LNG) power projects, represents a costly and potentially disastrous gamble for the nation’s environment, public health, and economy. A recent report by Market Forces, Waterkeepers Bangladesh, and Dhoritri Rokhhay Amra (DHORA) paints a sobering picture of the potential consequences of these projects, highlighting the heavy financial and ecological toll they would exact on Bangladesh, particularly in the context of the country’s already precarious position regarding climate change.

The proposed LNG-heavy energy strategy is one of the largest and most expensive undertakings in Bangladesh’s history, with projections indicating a price tag of up to US$50 billion. This vast sum is earmarked for the construction of LNG power plants and import terminals, projects that, according to the report, will not only worsen the country’s climate crisis but also pollute the air, damage public health, and place a significant strain on Bangladesh’s already overstretched resources. The costs of importing LNG alone could rise to between $7 billion and $11 billion annually by 2041, draining critical financial resources that could otherwise be invested in more sustainable development initiatives.

The move towards LNG comes at a time when Bangladesh is already suffering from the disastrous impacts of climate change. The country is experiencing increasingly severe heatwaves, more frequent and intense flooding, and destructive cyclones. These climate-induced disasters have placed an enormous burden on the population, particularly on those living in coastal and low-lying areas. The decision to pursue such a costly and environmentally damaging energy strategy is therefore viewed by many as an ill-advised and reckless course of action.

Potential Risks of the LNG Expansion

The potential risks of Bangladesh’s proposed LNG expansion is both alarming and fraught with peril, setting the nation on a path that risks deepening its environmental and economic crises. The government’s plan to build 41 new gas-fired power plants, totaling 37.4 gigawatts (GW) of capacity, is a reckless escalation that threatens to exacerbate the country’s already dire climate and health challenges. If implemented, these plants will more than double the nation’s current power generation capacity, but at an overwhelming cost to the environment, public health, and long-term economic stability.

The expansion would lock Bangladesh into a future of fossil fuel dependency, significantly increasing the country’s greenhouse gas emissions and contributing to the global climate crisis. These plants will emit billions of tons of carbon dioxide (CO₂), further accelerating global warming and worsening Bangladesh’s vulnerability to climate-induced disasters like flooding, heatwaves, and cyclones. The country’s already poor air quality—among the worst in the world—would be further degraded by the toxic pollutants released from LNG power stations, including sulfur dioxide (SO₂), nitrogen oxides (NOx), and particulate matter. These emissions are not just an abstract concern; they have real and immediate health consequences, particularly for vulnerable populations. Air pollution from such plants is linked to respiratory diseases, cardiovascular issues, and premature deaths, further burdening Bangladesh’s already overtaxed healthcare system.

Beyond the direct environmental and health risks, the financial implications of this LNG expansion are staggering. The cost of importing LNG alone could rise to as much as $7–11 billion annually by 2041, diverting vast sums of money that could otherwise be spent on sustainable infrastructure, healthcare, education, or disaster resilience. These funds would be locked into a fossil fuel system that is volatile, prone to price fluctuations, and reliant on foreign suppliers, leaving Bangladesh at the mercy of global energy markets. The economic strain of these imports would stifle any progress toward building a truly sustainable and self-sufficient energy system, ultimately diverting resources from renewable energy solutions that could provide a more stable, cost-effective, and clean alternative.

The Impact on Vulnerable Communities and Ecosystems

One of the most alarming aspects of the LNG expansion plan is its potential to displace and impoverish vulnerable communities that rely on natural resources for their survival. The planned LNG terminals in Chattogram, for example, would directly affect the livelihoods of over one million families who depend on fishing, agriculture, tourism, and other traditional industries. These communities, many of which are already facing the brunt of climate change impacts such as rising sea levels and increasing salinity, are at risk of being further marginalized and displaced by the construction of polluting LNG infrastructure.

The environmental and economic costs of this LNG expansion are compounded by its profound social impact, particularly on the nation’s most vulnerable communities. The proposed LNG terminals and power plants are slated for construction in coastal areas like Chattogram, where they will directly threaten the livelihoods of over one million people who rely on fishing, agriculture, and tourism. These communities are already on the frontlines of climate change, facing rising sea levels and extreme weather events. The introduction of polluting LNG infrastructure would not only displace them but also exacerbate the destruction of the fragile ecosystems they depend on. Local industries such as fishing and agriculture would be decimated by the contamination of water and soil, while coastal tourism—one of the few remaining economic lifelines for these communities—would be destroyed.

The human cost, the LNG expansion poses a serious threat to biodiversity. The construction of gas terminals and power plants in ecologically sensitive areas puts at risk the delicate balance of local ecosystems. Species like the Asian elephant and Clouded Leopard, which depend on the forests and wetlands of the region, could face significant threats to their survival as their habitats are destroyed or polluted. The loss of biodiversity will not only harm the environment but also have severe economic consequences, especially for communities that rely on natural resources for their survival.

In addition to the direct environmental and social impacts, the proposed LNG plants also threaten to exacerbate Bangladesh’s vulnerability to climate change. The construction of such large-scale fossil fuel infrastructure locks the country into a future of dependency on imported LNG, making it even more difficult to transition to a low-carbon, resilient energy system. Instead of making strides toward a renewable energy future, Bangladesh risks further entrenching itself in a fossil-fuel-based energy model that will continue to pollute the air, destabilize the climate, and harm its citizens.

The Renewable Energy Alternative

Bangladesh is blessed with abundant renewable energy resources that, if harnessed, could power the nation for generations to come. The country has the potential to install up to 240 GW of solar power and 30 GW of onshore wind, offering a sustainable and clean alternative to the proposed LNG expansion. Instead of pouring billions of dollars into fossil fuel infrastructure that will only exacerbate the climate crisis, the government has an unprecedented opportunity to invest in renewable energy projects that could transform the nation’s energy landscape.

Redirecting just a fraction of the $36 billion earmarked for LNG power plants could enable Bangladesh to unlock 62 GW of solar and wind power—more than double the nation’s current electricity generation capacity. This would allow Bangladesh to meet its growing energy needs while reducing its reliance on imported fuels and lowering its carbon footprint. Moreover, investing in renewables would create new jobs, stimulate economic growth, and improve energy security, making it a far more cost-effective and sustainable solution than the proposed LNG expansion.

Economic and Social Benefits of Renewables

The economic benefits of investing in renewable energy are clear. Solar and wind power are not only more affordable than LNG in the long term but also more resilient and sustainable. Unlike fossil fuels, which are subject to volatile global markets, renewable energy sources provide a stable, local, and increasingly affordable source of power. Bangladesh’s vast rural areas, many of which are currently underserved by the national electricity grid, would also benefit from decentralized solar and wind projects, improving energy access and reducing poverty in remote areas.

Moreover, renewable energy development would create a wide range of job opportunities, from manufacturing and installation to research and development. These new jobs would benefit local communities and help to build a more resilient economy that is less reliant on fossil fuel imports. The investment in renewables would also help Bangladesh avoid the environmental and health costs associated with LNG, which can be significant. The air pollution from LNG plants is associated with increased rates of respiratory diseases, cardiovascular problems, and premature deaths, which impose substantial costs on the healthcare system and reduce productivity.

The Role of Foreign Interests

It is worth noting that the push for LNG expansion in Bangladesh is being driven, in part, by foreign interests. Companies like Japan’s JERA and GE Vernova, as well as Japanese financial institutions, stand to benefit from the construction and operation of LNG infrastructure in Bangladesh. The energy master plan, which has been heavily influenced by Japan’s Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) and the Institute of Energy Economics Japan (IEEJ), promotes LNG expansion despite the well-documented environmental and health risks associated with such projects.

These foreign entities have a vested interest in promoting LNG, as it would provide them with lucrative contracts and long-term profits. However, the people of Bangladesh are the ones who will bear the true costs—financial, environmental, and social—of these decisions. The government must recognize that the benefits of LNG are largely externalized, while the costs are internalized by the population, particularly the most vulnerable communities.

A Call for Policy Change

Considering the grave risks posed by the LNG expansion, it is imperative that Bangladesh’s policymakers reconsider their approach. Instead of continuing to pour vast sums of money into an outdated and polluting energy strategy, the government must pivot toward a cleaner, more sustainable future. This includes investing in renewable energy infrastructure, modernizing the grid, and creating policies that incentivize energy efficiency and the transition to a low-carbon economy.

Bangladesh stands at a critical crossroads in its energy transition. The decisions made in the coming years will determine whether the country emerges as a resilient, sustainable nation or falls further into the trap of fossil fuel dependency. By redirecting funds from LNG projects into renewable energy, Bangladesh could build a clean energy future that will safeguard public health, protect vulnerable communities, and mitigate the impacts of climate change.

The world is watching, and it is time for Bangladesh to seize the opportunity to lead the way in clean energy development, ensuring a sustainable future for generations to come.

Author: Mamun Kabir, Manager of Communications and Advocacy, Waterkeepers Bangladesh

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