The summer of 2024 has been marked by an alarming surge in extreme weather events across the globe. From Las Vegas to London, New England to New Delhi, unprecedented heatwaves have shattered records, with over 85 million people in the United States alone experiencing extreme heat alerts. In many parts of the Midwest, heat indexes soared past 100 degrees Fahrenheit, signalling an intense and potentially dangerous summer season.
However, extreme heat is only one piece of the puzzle. Unusually large wildfires have swept through California and Greece, leaving destruction in their wake. At the same time, sustained heavy rainfall has caused widespread flooding in various parts of the world. Notably, May’s Cyclone Remal led to the displacement of around 700,000 people in Bangladesh. In other regions, such as Brazil and Kenya, fierce rains and subsequent floods have devastated entire communities, highlighting the global scale of these extreme weather phenomena.
While it is tempting to attribute these events solely to climate change, the reality is more complex. Climate scientists agree that human activities are contributing to a warmer planet, which in turn fuels more intense weather events. However, the direct link between specific extreme weather events and rising levels of greenhouse gases is intricate, involving numerous atmospheric and human factors. This complexity means that the impact of global warming varies significantly depending on the type of weather event and the region in question.
According to Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the Institute of the Environment and Sustainability at UCLA, “We are seeing increases in many types of extreme weather, which is consistent with theory and predictions and modelling.” However, Swain also emphasizes that the implications of these trends vary greatly depending on the type of extreme weather being considered.
For instance, while scientists have a clear understanding of how global warming drives temperature trends, the effects on hurricanes are less straightforward. Warmer air holds more moisture, which can intensify storms, yet the global frequency of tropical cyclones has actually decreased over the past century. However, in the North Atlantic, these storms have not only become more frequent but also stronger, posing new challenges for affected regions.
As we move forward, understanding these complex relationships will be crucial in addressing the challenges posed by a rapidly changing climate.